Nuclear Proliferation, Nucelar Non-Proliferation Quotes
This is a very important quotation. It is often cited by preventive war hawks to show that deterrence might not be a sufficient inhibitor against an extreme ideological enemy. In this case it was political philosophy that would make the enemy willing to have the majority of its population die to reach the ideological objective. More fearful is the prospect of the Theocracy of Iran where the leaders may believe that nuclear jihad is a commandment of God. More critical is the Islamic theology which says that if most of the Iranian Muslim population die in a nuclear war that they start all those people will be martyrs and immediately go to God’s Paradise. Thus, even the dead Muslims are not victims and the nonbelievers should be killed. For extremely fanatical Muslims nuclear war can be a logical and holy course of action.
The concept of Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) has inhibited the use of atomic weapons since WWII. If one nuclear nation attacked another, the attacked nation would still have time to retaliate and both countries would be destroyed. However, Iran by their own statements and past history might not be inhibited by large losses and death in retaliation. Iran, a theocracy, has a religion that believes that any Muslim who is killed in defense of Islam will immediately go to heaven. They have sacrificed hundreds of thousands of their citizens in their war with Iraq. Iran is a much larger country than Israel where a single nuclear bomb would destroy the whole nation. One retaliatory bomb would do terrible damage to Iran but much more of the country and its people would survive. The Iran fanatics might make such a tradeoff as a religious obligation. This is why, most of the world is doing much to prevent Iran from getting a nuclear weapon at all. Rafsanjani’s logic however assumes that if Iran fired one bomb, Israel would retaliate with one bomb. However, Israel has the capability of carpeting all of Iran with a nuclear muti-warhead retaliation so Iran would also be completely destroyed. However Israeli policy has been to never discuss anything about nuclear weapons and their policies. Some ultra-fanatical Muslims have argued that even of all of Iran and its people were destroyed, this would be a worthwhile “martyrdom” so that the remainder of the Muslim world would be free of Israel. This is illustrative of how difficult it is negotiating with religious fundamentalists who control a nation.
Germany had some world class physicists. Our scientists, military intelligence people, and political leadership assumed that the Germans were also seeking to develop the Atomic Bomb. Ironically, it turned out that they were not, and what Truman reported in this quotation was untrue (although that was not fully known at the time.) Einstein and several of the scientists who were early pioneers in modern physics were Jewish, and Hitler referred to the study of nuclear fission and fusion as “Jewish Science.” As a result, the German government did not commit the resources to the development of an atomic bomb. Instead, they were betting on the development of the Jet Airplane which they succeeded in deploying against the Allies at the end of the war. But they did not have enough or enough pilots left alive to fly them, and Germany was overrun by the Allied Troops. Prior to Truman’s erroneous report about the German development of an atomic bomb, there had only been one piece of evidence that the Germans were not developing one. An OSS secret agent, Moe Berg, had talked with Werner Heisenberg, at a Swiss scientific conference during the war. He was going to assassinate the greatest of the German physicists if Berg thought he was working on a nuclear device. Berg concluded from his discussions that Heisenberg did not know enough about nuclear fission to have been working on that. Berg did not kill Heisenberg, and reported that he did not think the Germans were developing a bomb as if they were Heisenberg would have been deeply involved. However, the American intelligence people and the American scientists, did not trust Berg’s analysis and conclusion. Berg was not a trained scientist. He was a professional baseball player—the NY Yankee backup catcher to Bill Dickey. He was a college graduate, a brilliant guy and a very fast learner who had studied physics books and papers before his assignment. Berg turned out to have been right, but that was not confirmed until a few years after the war. Truman had relied on an incorrect intelligence estimate when he made this quotation. It was not the first such error of intelligence analysis in American history and it would not be the last.
India built the bomb, and then Pakistan djd at great economic sacrifice.
