John Maynard Keynes Quotes
It would be foolish, in forming our expectations, to attach great weight to matters which are very uncertain.
John Maynard Keynes, 1883-1946, British Economist, The General Theory of Employment Interest and Money, 1935
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He is absolutely right, but unfortunately made this statement several years after he served as the Fed Chairman. He never made a statement like this when he and his colleagues made their policies based on their economic forecasting. Central bankers have generally felt that one of their jobs was to give the people confidence in the nation’s banking system and economy and the admission that much policy making was based on “coin toss” forecasting.
He does not claim that a prediction may not coincidentally turn out to be accurate—just that the predictor has no certainty whatsoever and at best was guessing and at worse manipulating.
This admonition of his applied not only to initiating war, but to increasing unemployment for a worthy purpose like controlling inflation. He sought solutions where pain was borne by tall if necessary, but not to particular subgroups (identifiable or not) to the degree that they would suffer badly. In general, we should not sacrifice some for the good of the whole without their volunteering, as in a volunteer army.
John Maynard Keynes, 1st Baron Keynes, CB, FBA (5 June 1883 – 21 April 1946), was an English economist whose ideas fundamentally changed the theory and practice of macroeconomics and the economic policies of governments. Originally trained in mathematics, he built on and greatly refined earlier work on the causes of business cycles. One of the most influential economists of the 20th century, he produced writings that are the basis for the school of thought known as Keynesian economics, and its various offshoots. His ideas, reformulated as New Keynesianism, are fundamental to mainstream macroeconomics.
