Strategic Uncertainty Quotes

Hence that general is skilful in attack whose opponent does not know what to defend; and he is skilful in defense whose opponent does not know what to attack.

The important thing to remember is war does not progress linearly. The future course of events is going to be very difficult to predict with a high degree of precision.

I'm old enough to remember John Kennedy sending a few advisers into Vietnam. I'm very worried we'll get in and we'll get mired down in something we don't have any idea what to do [with].

We must walk consciously only part way toward our goal, and then leap in the dark to our success.

To ensure attaining an objective, one should have alternate objectives. An attack that converges on one point should threaten, and be able to diverge against another. Only by this flexibility of aim can strategy be attuned to the uncertainty of war.

It is difficult for anyone to tell you what is going to happen. [Middle East] is an area where everything is on the brink of explosion.

He has conferred on the practice of vacillation the aura of statesmanship.

Half the variations which are calculated in a tournament game turn out to be completely superfluous. Unfortunately, no one knows in advance which half

It's always tricky to play against a player who you've never played against.

Putin's recent penchant for high stakes wagers may prove even harder for Western leaders to handle than a policy of consistent expansionism, A rational imperialist can be contained, but the appropriate response to a gambler who makes snap decisions based on short term factors is less clear.

The only situation a commander can know fully is his own: his opponent's he can know only from unreliable intelligence.

But it is almost impossible to communicate with them [one's spies in the enemy camp] and receive the information they possess ... Even when the general receives from his spies information of movements, he still knows nothing of those which may since have taken place, nor of what the enemy is going finally to attempt.

I strongly believe what we're doing is the right thing. If I didn't believe it -- I'm going to repeat what I said before -- I'd pull the troops out, nor if I believed we could win, I would pull the troops out.

You will find ambiguity a great ally on your road to power. Give a sign of Slytherin on one day, and contradict it with a sign of Gryffindor the next; and the Slytherins will be enabled to believe what they wish, while the Gryffindors argue themselves into supporting you as well. So long as there is uncertainty, people can believe whatever seems to be to their own advantage. And so long as you appear strong, so long as you appear to be winning, their instincts will tell them that their advantage lies with you. Walk always in the shadow, and light and darkness both will follow.

Google never knew how successful key words would be. Facebook didn't know how successful Zynga would be.

You should never even ask if a campaign is winnable, because the question is not answerable. No-one can predict the course of the future. Time and time again I have seen completely unforeseeable shifts in the tide of events that result in campaign victory.

Ah. So he's forgotten the most important rule of warfare. Which is... That nothing ever goes to plan.

You have to run risks. There are no certainties in war. There is a precipice on either side of you - a precipice of caution and a precipice of over-daring.

Even if you play perfectly, a fault of your opponent's can destroy the entire beauty of the game.