Prediction Errors Quotes

The Treasury has enough trouble with forecasts even when they are trying to get them right.

Let there be a special place in Hell for pundits who make predictions.

Sometimes economists are right, and sometimes economists are wrong.

How many times has the end of the world been predicted? The same number of times the prediction has proved false.

The CBO is the only group that makes the weatherman's ten-day forecast look like exact science. They seem to miss their projections with extreme regularity.

Exit polls have gone notoriously wrong in the past.

Economists have predicted seven of the last two recessions.

When human judgment and big data intersect there are some funny things that happen.

Economic forecasting has actually got pretty good over the years, though admittedly, we don't always get it right.

To prove that Wall Street is an early omen of movements still to come in GNP, commentators quote economic studies alleging that market downturns predicted four out of the last five recessions. That is an understatement. Wall Street indexes predicted nine out of the last five recessions! And its mistakes were beauties.

The general public still expects a lot more forecasting accuracy than any of us can deliver.