Economic Forecasting Quotes

A potentially useful property of forecasts based on cointegration is that when extended some way ahead, the forecasts of the two series will form a constant ratio, as is expected by some asymptotic economic theory.

Economists are people who wonder if what works in reality can also work in theory.

Evolving technologies that allow economists to gather new types of data and to manipulate millions of data points are just one factor among several that are likely to transform the field in coming years.

There is only one difference between a bad economist and a good one: the bad economist confines himself to the visible effect; the good economist takes into account both the effect that can be seen and those effects that must be foreseen.

An economist's guess is liable to be as good as anybody else's.

The good news is that economists are intelligent, engaging and often charming folks. The bad news is their work is often of little use to investors.

In the 1970s, as historians became enchanted with microhistories, economists were expanding the reach of their discipline. Nations, states and cities began to plan for the future by consulting with economists whose prognostications were shaped by investment cycles rather than historical ones.

Economists are about as useful as astrologers in predicting the future (and, like astrologers, they never let failure on one occasion diminish certitude on the next).

Economists create their own worlds. We're like little gods with our artificial economics, wanting to see what happens.

The Treasury has enough trouble with forecasts even when they are trying to get them right.

The game of investing is one of making better predictions about the future than other people. How are you going to do that? One way is to limit your tries to areas of competence. If you try to predict the future of everything, you attempt too much.

It is a misfortune of the times that all of us must needs be amateur economists-including, and perhaps especially, the professionals.

Economics is not an exact science.

National policy must depend on correct predictions concerning the international future.

The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design.

If economists were doctors, they would today be mired in malpractice suits.

Our discussions of the economy may sometimes ring in the ears of the public with more certainty than is appropriate.

In a scheme of policy which is devised for a nation, we should not limit our views to the operation during a single year, or even a short term of years. We should look at its operation for a considerable time.

An economist is an expert who will know tomorrow why the things he predicted yesterday didn't happen today.

Take care to be an economist in prosperity. There is no fear of your being one in adversity.

I have never considered myself an economist.

One component of the leading economic indicators is the yield curve. Bond investors keep a close eye on this, as it illustrates the spread or difference between long-term interest rates and short-term ones.

I think that it's more important for an economist to be wise and sophisticated in scientific method than it is for a physicist because with controlled laboratory experiments possible, they practically guide you; you couldn't go astray. Whereas in economics, by dogma and misunderstanding, you can go very sadly astray.

I'm a better economist than I was a sax player.

Our expectation is that by 2050, which is a long time away, India will be the largest economy in the world, overtaking both the U.S. and China.