Forecasting Limitations Quotes

It may happen that small differences in the initial conditions produce very great ones in the final phenomena. A small error in the former will produce an enormous error in the later. Prediction becomes impossible, and we have the fortuitous phenomena.

So, regarding the time frame, I'm only too willing to admit that my crystal ball, like everybody else's, is cracked. If I could predict precisely, I would have started predicting the stock market and would now be living with a bunch of young women on Bora Bora, having bought it.

We really can't forecast all that well, and yet we pretend that we can, but we really can't.

There is no way that we can predict the weather six months ahead beyond giving the seasonal average.

Economists have allowed themselves to walk into a trap where we say we can forecast, but no serious economist thinks we can.

We are often wrong about the past, but at least with the past you can change your thinking. We can't do that with the future.

Whenever I see a forecast written out to two decimal places, I cannot help but wonder if there is a misunderstanding of the limitations of the data, and an illusion of precision.

Foresight is an imperfect thing - all prevision in economics is imperfect.

Pundits are no better at forecasting election outcomes than they would be at predicting the final path of a hurricane. Smart pundits should consider either abandoning this activity or consulting with the geeks before rendering their guesses.

Economists have allowed themselves to walk into a trap where we say we can forecast, but no serious economist thinks we can. You don't expect dentists to be able to forecast how many teeth you'll have when you're 80. You expect them to give good advice and fix problems.