Barry Ritholtz Quotes
Whenever I see a forecast written out to two decimal places, I cannot help but wonder if there is a misunderstanding of the limitations of the data, and an illusion of precision.
Ritholtz, Barry. "The Illusion of Precision." Bloomberg View, Bloomberg L.P., 24 July 2014.
Berelson had done a major compendium of research and found that the high quality studies with very good data were usually done in studies or programs that were not very important, while the most important areas were usually informed by poorer data and less rigid studies. As an example he gave the extensive data that the defense department then had on the relative physical fitness prowess of the marines verses the other services, but had little or no data as to whether the marine was a better fighter, had better judgment in crises, was more skilled with weapons system of the time etc. The Education Department had great data on the performance of students on mathematics tests but almost none on how to teach mathematics.
Barry Ritholtz is an American author, newspaper columnist, blogger, equities analyst, CIO of Ritholtz Wealth Management, and guest commentator on Bloomberg Television. Ritholtz is the host of the Bloomberg Podcast Masters in Business in which he interviews influential figures on markets, investing and business. He is also a former contributor to CNBC and TheStreet.com.
