Richard Thaler Quotes

All models have faults - that doesn't mean you can't use them as tools for making decisions.

I'm always trying to calculate the mathematical probability of certain outcomes.

Foreseeing the future is always difficult.

People don't realize that we cannot forecast the future. What we can do is have probabilities of what causes what, but that's as far as we go. And I've had a very successful career as a forecaster, starting in 1948 forward. The number of mistakes I have made are just awesome. There is no number large enough to account for that.

The 50-50-90 rule: Anytime you have a 50-50 chance of getting something right, there's a 90% probability you'll get it wrong.

An economist's guess is liable to be as good as anybody else's.

If you have to forecast, forecast often.

We must become more comfortable with probability and uncertainty.

Statistics are no substitute for judgment.

Games are all about taking risks.

I think there's a difference between a gamble and a calculated risk.

I am incredibly bad at predicting the future; I am only smart enough to observe the present and listen to my intuition about tendencies.

Life is made up of a series of judgments on insufficient data, and if we waited to run down all our doubts, it would flow past us.

We will never have 100 percent certainty except in hindsight.

In the intelligence business you are almost never completely wrong or completely right.

A pinch of probability is worth a pound of perhaps.

Guess, if you can, and choose, if you dare.

An old friend of mine, an economist by trade, once explained to me that the statistical definition of 'dilemma' is 49.9% in favor and 50.1% against. If the gap is greater, there is no dilemma, because the answer is clear.

I've said many times that I'm not one of those people who check statistics, follows history, and says, 'If I do this, what will happen.'

Whatever way uncertainty is approached, probability is the only sound way to think about it.

I shall always consider the best guesser the best prophet.

Decision-making is difficult because, by its nature, it involves uncertainty. If there was no uncertainty, decisions would be easy! The uncertainty exists because we don't know the future, we don't know if the decision we make will lead to the best possible outcome. Cognitive science has taught us that relying on our gut or intuition often leads to bad decisions, particularly in cases where statistical information is available. Our guts and our brains didn't evolve to deal with probabilistic thinking.

We're better in the rearview mirror than we are at predicting - 'cause you're never going to be right every time. You can handicap it. You can point to certain elements that make it work, and many of those elements come straight out of epidemiology, right?

You have a certain set of facts and you are looking for situations where you have an edge, whether the edge is psychological or statistical.

To get anywhere, or even to live a long time, a man has to guess, and guess right, over and over again, without enough data for a logical answer.