Nate Silver Quotes

Forecasting is very difficult, especially when it involves the future.

One of my few shortcomings is that I can't predict the future.

It is the ability to make predictions about the future that is the crux of intelligence.

Prediction is difficult - particularly when it involves the future.

People don't realize that we cannot forecast the future. What we can do is have probabilities of what causes what, but that's as far as we go. And I've had a very successful career as a forecaster, starting in 1948 forward. The number of mistakes I have made are just awesome. There is no number large enough to account for that.

There is no formula that will guarantee success in forecasting, no magic words that will part the clouds. The real problem, as the old saw puts it, is that the future lies ahead.

Prediction, not narration, is the real test of our understanding of the world.

The art of prophecy is very difficult, especially with respect to the future.

I agree with the realistic Irishman who said he preferred to prophesy after the event.

Newspapers tell beforehand what is going to happen - maybe.

I never quite trust futurists because I think they're kind of telling us what they think our future should be.

I do not like to talk about the future. I don't like to be one of those people. It's so easy to have a very vague idea and say, oh, computers will be 3D-ish and then 10 years later I'll say I predicted it 10 years ahead. I don't think that's honest and I don't think that's valid and worth anything.

Precise forecasts masquerade as accurate ones.

Forecasts may tell you a great deal about the forecaster; they tell you nothing about the future.

While we may open the books of the past, we may but grant flying glances of the future, through the mist that veils it.

A prediction, in a field where prediction is not possible, is no more than a prejudice.

Consciousness-one level is understanding where we are in space. Consciousness two is where we understand our position in society: who's top dog, who's underdog and who's in the middle. And type-three consciousness is simulating the future. And type-three consciousness, only humans have this ability to see far into the future.

Intelligence recognizes what has happened. Genius recognizes what will happen.

An economist is an expert who will know tomorrow why the things he predicted yesterday didn't happen today.

I try not to get involved in the business of prediction. It's a quick way to look like an idiot.

My biggest error? Something that is to happen yet.

It is always wise to look ahead, but difficult to look further than you can see.

I'm a lousy predictor of the future.

Predictions are preposterous.

The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.