Claude Shannon Quotes

We must become more comfortable with probability and uncertainty.

I'm always trying to calculate the mathematical probability of certain outcomes.

All models have faults - that doesn't mean you can't use them as tools for making decisions.

Entropy theory, on the other hand, is not concerned with the probability of succession in a series of items but with the overall distribution of kinds of items in a given arrangement.

Maybe we should teach schoolchildren probability theory and investment risk management.

Physics tells us observations can't be predicted absolutely. Rather, there's a range of possible observations each with a different probability.

Probability is expectation founded upon partial knowledge. A perfect acquaintance with all the circumstances affecting the occurrence of an event would change expectation into certainty, and leave nether room nor demand for a theory of probabilities.

The importance of information is directly proportional to its improbability.

Coincidences, in general, are great stumbling-blocks in the way of that class of thinkers who have been educated to know nothing of the theory of probabilities.

Whether baseball or football, we're tasked in front offices with making decisions under uncertainty. How do you corral that uncertainty in a way to make more consistently better decisions? That's very similar.

Of Belief Human mathematics, so to speak, like the length of life, are subject to the doctrine of chances.

Whatever way uncertainty is approached, probability is the only sound way to think about it.

In mathematics, as in physics, so much depends on chance, on a propitious moment.

Skill is a function of chance. It’s an intuitive best-use of chance situations.

Statistics were magic like this: they could tell you with near-certainty that a thing would occur, without a hint of when or where.

Random chance is not sufficient to explain random chance. ~Jubal Harshaw

A reasonable probability is the only certainty.

There is no such thing as luck; there is only adequate or inadequate preparation to cope with a statistical universe.

The theory of probability is the only mathematical tool available to help map the unknown and the uncontrollable. It is fortunate that this tool, while tricky, is extraordinarily powerful and convenient.

But they never notice the following inconsistency: this so-called worst-case event, when it happened, exceeded the worst case at the time.

I failed math twice, never fully grasping probability theory. I mean, first off, who cares if you pick a black ball or a white ball out of the bag? And second, if you’re bent over about the color, don’t leave it to chance. Look in the damn bag and pick the color you want.

A fundamental principle of information theory is that you can’t guarantee outcomes… in order for an experiment to yield knowledge, it has to be able to fail. If you have guaranteed experiments, you have zero knowledge

While in theory randomness is an intrinsic property, in practice, randomness is incomplete information.

Random questions are the least random of all questions.

I always remind myself that what one observes is at best a combination of variance and returns, not just returns.