Francesco Guicciardini Quotes
Enterprises that depend on many rarely succeed.
Francesco Guicciardini, 1483-1540, Florentine Historian & Statesman, Quoted in James Wood, Dictionary of Quotations, 1899
Sourced by: Eigen's Political and Historical Quotations
Technically, the probability has never changed. However, most probabilities are in relation to a specific event or time. A levee may have only a 1% probably of failing in a hurricane but if there are 10 hurricanes a year, the probability that the levee will fail at least once in 30 years is about 50%.
Politicians and business leaders are extremely prone to this pattern. In most cases the managers actually believe that it was their strategy that caused the success rather than admit that fortune and circumstance were major factors. The citizen in a democracy also wants to believe that national strategy is the cause of good outcomes otherwise he would face a world in which he is powerless to effect the outcome of important happenings.
Francesco Guicciardini was an Italian historian and statesman. A friend and critic of Niccolò Machiavelli, he is considered one of the major political writers of the Italian Renaissance. In his masterpiece, The History of Italy, Guicciardini paved the way for a new style in historiography with his use of government sources to support arguments and the realistic analysis of the people and events of his time.