William J. Bernstein Quotes
Do the math. Expect catastrophes. Whatever happens, stay the course.
Bernstein, William J. The Investor's Manifesto: Preparing for Prosperity, Armageddon, and Everything in Between. John Wiley & Sons, 2009.
Technically, the probability has never changed. However, most probabilities are in relation to a specific event or time. A levee may have only a 1% probably of failing in a hurricane but if there are 10 hurricanes a year, the probability that the levee will fail at least once in 30 years is about 50%.
William J. Bernstein (born 1948) is an American financial theorist and neurologist. His research is in the field of modern portfolio theory and he has published books for individual investors who wish to manage their own equity portfolios. He lives in Portland, Oregon.