Unreliable Predictions Quotes

The one prediction that never comes true is, 'You'll thank me for telling you this.

He who lives by the crystal ball soon learns to eat ground glass.

… they made the cardinal error of extrapolation. Forecasters assumed that recent trends would continue indefinitely and that hot economies would stay hot…. Euphoria overcame sound judgment, a process that has doomed economic forecasting for as long as experts have been doing it.

Nobody believes a weather prediction twelve hours ahead. Now we're being asked to believe a prediction that goes out 100 years into the future? And make financial investments based on that prediction? Has everybody lost their minds?

What I am against is false optimism: the notion either that things have to go well, or else that they tend to, or else that the default condition of historical trajectories is characteristically beneficial in the long-run.

We really can't forecast all that well, and yet we pretend that we can, but we really can't.

The pollsters are engaged in an ancient and primitive rite—trying to predict the future.

No single piece of macroeconomic advice given by the experts to their government has ever had the results predicted.

A teacher told my mother that I would never become successful, which illustrates the difficulty of long-run forecasting on inadequate data.