Outcome Analysis Quotes

Policies are judged by their consequences but crusades are judged by how good they make the crusaders feel.

Too many policies, programs and institutions are judged by what they are supposed to do, rather than by what they actually do and the consequences of their actions.

The hooks didn't roll out any more sevens than my hands did before them.

In every enterprise consider where you would come out.

I'm always trying to calculate the mathematical probability of certain outcomes.

We have to make judgments on the individual players and we're not always going to be right.

Checking the results of a decision against its expectations shows executives what their strengths are, where they need to improve, and where they lack knowledge or information.

Ultimately progress is measured sort of through the eyes of users.

We've been astonished by how good groups working together can predict the outcomes of events.

I can discern that certain things have an effect on certain other things, but I don't view those effects as good or bad. If a context and a goal is defined, I could say if it's good or bad. But overall, I don't view things as good or bad.

If something doesn't turn out as planned, you will ask yourself, 'How did I create that? What was I thinking? What were my beliefs? What did I say or not say? What did I do or not do to create that result? How did I get the other person to act that way? What do I need to do differently next time to get the result I want?'

Using a forecasting company is like going to a fortune-teller. If you believe the company and the color does not sell, who do you blame? The forecasters? No, you blame yourself.

I think everything I have done in my life, my reasons at the time were right no matter how things worked out.

People (political and military leaders) much prefer to speak of what they are going to do rather than what the outcome will be.

I see guys who are in the gym all the time, but their bodies are not a reflection of that. They look the same from year to year, and that has to do with the fact that they're not evaluating the effect of their efforts.

When ideas are confronted with reality, there will always be surprises.

If you sat with a pencil and jotted down all the decisions you've taken in the past week, or, if you could, over your lifetime, you would realize that almost all of them have had asymmetric payoff, with one side carrying a larger consequence than the other. You decide principally based on fragility, not probability. Or to rephrase, You decide principally based on fragility, not so much on True/False.

I try to look at problems very clearly and think, 'How do we get out of this? What will work? What will be the consequences for the people involved?'

I simply wanted to state that during this little slice of history, this is what happened and these were the good sides of it, these were the more dangerous sides of it, and this was the result.

I really try at least to come back and answer the question as to whether that was really the best way to do that and was I really thinking straight and how did my opponents behave and how did the judges behave was needed.

If a proposal doesn't prove out as expected when we run it, sometimes we change the model.

Risks are a measure of people. People who don't take them are trying to preserve what they have. Some risks have a future, and some people call them wrong. But being right may be like walking backwards, proving where you've been.

Researchers have always tried to use psychology for predictive ends: Can what we already know about a person tell us how she will behave in a given situation? The results of these endeavors have been mixed.

Which 20% of sources are causing 80% of my problems and unhappiness? Which 20% of sources are resulting in 80% of my desired outcomes and happiness?

You can't look into a crystal ball but what you can say is if money is put on the table and you get half your signings right then you are going to be better next time around.