Forecasting Accuracy Quotes

The global financial crisis - missed by most analysts - shows that most forecasters are poor at pricing in economic/financial risks, let alone geopolitical ones.

I have no use whatsoever for projections or forecasts. They create an illusion of apparent precision. The more meticulous they are, the more concerned you should be. We never look at projections, but we care very much about, and look very deeply at, track records. If a company has a lousy track record, but a very bright future, we will miss the opportunity.

Economists state their GNP growth projections to the nearest tenth of a percentage point to prove they have a sense of humor.

Using a forecasting company is like going to a fortune-teller. If you believe the company and the color does not sell, who do you blame? The forecasters? No, you blame yourself.

The rule on staying alive as a forecaster is to give 'em a number or give 'em a date, but never give 'em both at once.

We really can't forecast all that well, and yet we pretend that we can, but we really can't.

Better to be right about the trend and wrong about the implementation, than the other way around.

You can't make money with a consensus accurate prediction.

If you have to forecast, forecast often.

You don't want to influence the same system you are trying to forecast.

Computer modelling for weather forecasting, and indeed for climate forecasting, has reached its limits.

The general public still expects a lot more forecasting accuracy than any of us can deliver.

Nate Silver says this is a 73.6 percent chance that the president is going to win. Nobody in that campaign thinks they have a 73 — they think they have a 50.1 percent chance of winning. And you talk to the Romney people, it’s the same thing.

I believe that economists put decimal points in their forecasts to show they have a sense of humor.

My track record is pretty good on predictions.

We spend a lot of time and effort trying to figure out who's going to be a good NFL quarterback, and we do a very bad job of it. We don't really know. And we also spend a lot of time trying to figure out who will be a good teacher, and we're really bad at that too. We don't know if someone is going to be a good teacher when they start teaching. So what should we do in those situations in which predictions are useless?