Chinese Proverb Quotes
it is … not a good idea to resort to tossing coins.
Chinese Proverb, Quoted in Du Wen Lan, 1815-1881, GuYaoYan
Sourced by: Eigen's Political and Historical Quotations
See {630694} for a later, more specific instance where Hand’s principle was required operationally.
He is absolutely right, but unfortunately made this statement several years after he served as the Fed Chairman. He never made a statement like this when he and his colleagues made their policies based on their economic forecasting. Central bankers have generally felt that one of their jobs was to give the people confidence in the nation’s banking system and economy and the admission that much policy making was based on “coin toss” forecasting.
The British had committed to self-government and independence for India. However, there was great pressure from Muslims for a partition of India to have a separate independent state—Pakistan. The British had to decide whether there should be a separate Muslim state and if so what area should it encompass?" 1st Baron Ismay
Describing the NASA safety program at the time of the Challenger disaster:
Technically, the probability has never changed. However, most probabilities are in relation to a specific event or time. A levee may have only a 1% probably of failing in a hurricane but if there are 10 hurricanes a year, the probability that the levee will fail at least once in 30 years is about 50%.
