Daniel Kahneman Quotes

Then you realize that the preparation and the planning of this small army of people trying to head to the single aim of creating a work that's going to excite people is very risky. Of course, the odds are that it's not going to work out because there are too many possibilities of it going wrong.

Risk is a function of how poorly a strategy will perform if the 'wrong' scenario occurs.

We're hoping for the best, but we need to prepare for the worst.

If we have as a clear certainty with which to plan, total uncertainty, then that would be helpful.

In most covert operations … particularly those that have a large paramilitary component, the planning for later stages is very incomplete. The outcome of the first stages of the operation is usually so difficult to predict that it wouldn't have seemed sensible to have planned the later stages. One can plan the first phases, but not what happens next

The military has to think in terms of worst case scenarios. In a sense, they have to play the pessimist.

Don’t ignore planning for unlikely events. Over long periods of time the highly improbable gets more probable to occur at least once.

All market response results from a reduction of uncertainty.

We necessarily operate in an environment in which there's a great deal of uncertainty. In such an environment, it makes sense to use a risk-management approach to identify and avoid the big mistakes. That's one reason I favor a cautious approach.

I do believe it is important to be future-ready with a portfolio to be able to deal with however the market evolves. This is better than just forecasting accurately but in having the weapons ready to deal with the uncertainties.

Managing risk is a key variable, frankly, all aspects of life, business is just one of them, and one of the things that most people do in terms of managing risk, that's actually bad thinking, is they think they can manage risk to zero. Everything has some risk to it. You know, you drive your car down the street, a drunk driver may hit you. So what you're doing is you're actually trying to get to an acceptable level of risk.

While we cannot accurately predict the course of climate change in the coming decades, the risks we run if we don't change our course are enormous. Prudent risk management does not equate uncertainty with inaction.

It would be wonderful if we could avoid the setbacks with timely exits, but nobody has figured out how to predict them.

The risk of a business being hit by a low probability, high impact event is far higher than most boards realize because the number of potential wild cards is so great.

As an adventurer...I try to protect against the downside. I make sure I have covered as many eventualities as I can. In the end, you have to take calculated risks; otherwise you're going to sit in mothballs all day and do nothing.

By definition, risk-takers often fail. So do morons. In practice it's difficult to sort them out.

You say this victory is dangerous. I say that today no one can yet tell if it's dangerous, that today I don't see the risks you mention. If, however, those risks should become reality...I'll act in accordance with the new reality.

There's nothing wrong with a plan, but remember Von Moltke's famous dictum that no plan survives first contact with the enemy. The danger is a plan that seduces us into thinking failure is impossible and adaptation is unnecessary - a kind of ‘Titanic' plan, unsinkable (until it hits the iceberg).

The difference between a calculated risk and rolling the dice can be expressed in one word: homework.

I'm in the business where I can't ever say there's no risk associated with someone.

Take calculated risks.

I compensate for big risks by always doing my homework and being well-prepared. I can take on larger risks by reducing the overall risk.

You have to take calculated risks in life.

All inquiries carry with them some element of risk.