In 2006, the global economy was doing well. In India, the political and economic situation was stable. All key macroeconomic indicators reflected an economy that was in robust good health.
We've had a number of economists supporting our legislation. And here's where we are. The American people can judge. Six largest financial institutions in America today have assets of roughly $10 trillion; equivalent to 58 percent of the GDP of the United States of America.
Central banks are choosing to increase their gold holdings as a percentage of total reserves. They obviously think there is a reason to do that. It doesn't make sense to back up one currency with a hoard of other paper currencies. There needs to be a real anchor there. I think that central banks are well behind the curve. If you look at the percentage of above-ground gold controlled by central banks, it's historically low. Hence the fact that central banks are trying to increase their holdings. They've got a long way to go to get where they need to be.
There will always be divergence of views on the output gap, as it is unobservable in a rigorous direct sense. There are only estimates. How can there be a strong consensus on that?
Our economy, I think, is still -- the fundamentals of our economy are strong.
If you want a simple model for predicting the unemployment rate in the United States over the next few years, here it is: It will be what Greenspan wants it to be, plus or minus a random error reflecting the fact that he is not quite God.
In principle, there are only three main components of spending that much matter to monetary policy: consumer spending, business investment and exports and trade.
Our microeconomic indicators are stable and it gives me reason to believe that we will calmly and steadily pass this uneasy period in our economy, which has already no doubt adapted to the current situation.
An overheating economy, characterized by accelerating inflation and rising interest rates, is another precondition for recession. This doesn't describe today's economy.
