People exaggerate their confidence in their plans - something we call the planning fallacy... The existence of the plan tends to induce overconfidence.
A racing tipster who only reached Hitler's level of accuracy would not do well for his clients.
What do you call an economist with a prediction? Wrong.
But they never notice the following inconsistency: this so-called worst-case event, when it happened, exceeded the worst case at the time.
The planning fallacy is that you make a plan, which is usually a best-case scenario. Then you assume that the outcome will follow your plan, even when you should know better.
It's human nature to extrapolate the recent past into the future, but it's terrible that managements go along with this.
If you have reason to think that yesterday's forecast went wrong, there is no glory in sticking to it.
A teacher told my mother that I would never become successful, which illustrates the difficulty of long-run forecasting on inadequate data.
