Electoral Trends Quotes

Most African-Americans really do believe that we are voting for our better interest in voting for Democrats.

How did the party that elected the first black U.S. senator, the party that elected the first 20 African-American congressmen, how did that party become a party that now loses 95 percent of the black vote?

There are some voters who are rather traditional and have some reservations about electing a woman leader. But the younger generation are excited to have a woman leader for the country. They think it is somewhat trendy.

We know from past history that when young people vote for one party a couple of times, they tend to vote for that party during their adult lifetimes in disproportionate numbers.

In most countries, class, education, religion, and regions are better predictors of voting behavior than sex.

White voters were 72 percent of the electorate in 2012, and their share of the population has shrunk a couple points since then. [Donald] Trump has had trouble winning certain segments of the white vote, such as suburban women and college-educated voters.

Political analysts tend to overinterpret the results of isolated elections.

The UKIP voter is 60 percent male, 40 percent female. Is 65 percent older than 55 and 35 percent younger than 55. It's not hard to work out. Some have been Labor. Some have been Tories. The most difficult thing is previous voting intention, because they're coming from across the board.

In the 1990s, the Lib Dems won a string of byelections at the expense of struggling Conservative governments. Christchurch, Ribble Valley and Eastbourne went straight back to the Tories at the next general election, but the Lib Dems held their later byelection gains - Eastleigh, Newbury and Romsey - in at least two subsequent general elections.

This is partly a function of approval ratings. People pay attention [to polls] and start saying, 'Lets take a more independent tack.' It is frankly self-interest, self-preservation.

The Democrats have lost a thousand electoral seats in America in midterm elections, 2010, 2014. The people of this country are clearly willing to vote against Democrats. They are clearly willing to vote for Republicans. But when you get to the presidential election, it better be somebody that's not just part of the establishment. That's the message, and that's what they're not getting.

The pollsters and pundits will keep trying to read voters' minds.

Twenty five point leads don’t typically hold up.

If the 2016 election is any indication, every four years, millions more Americans will continue backing away from their own parties to choose a third party instead.

Nobody looks at opinion polls with more attention than politicians, but of course you've got to remember that a single poll is a snapshot in time.

Meanwhile, there are some traditional battleground states - like Ohio and Iowa - that are becoming older, whiter and less educated. That's turning them from true battlegrounds into more reliable red states.

A huge constituency, such as Hispanics, is not 100 percent Democratic.

Republican candidates have won whites with college degrees in every presidential election since polling began.

And if you're getting a poll coming out month after month saying something and then all of a sudden does an enormous swing in one direction - you are dealing with a more volatile electorate than most people believe they have.

The people who get up earliest in the morning have the highest propensity to vote UKIP. I'm being absolutely serious about that.

The silent voter, interestingly, has always been the voter for AAP.