Less emphasis on inventories, I think, may tend to dampen business cycles, because business cycles are typically in the grasp of inventory cycles and heavy industry cycles.
There is always some chance of recession in any year. But the evidence suggests that expansions don't die of old age.
Inflation is lower and more stable and the real business cycle fluctuations are more modest.
I've been busy and not busy, and busy is better. I've been busy, but I went through a lot of periods where it was lean for a lot of times.
Like all businesses ACID has its ups and downs. There are actually seasons when business will pick up such as Christmas time and carnival time. There are other times when business will run very slow.
I knew an actor's career goes up and down and back up again. Your standing in this business can't be your whole identity; otherwise, you're doomed.
Expansions do not die of old age. The probability of recession in the following year is the same for a three-year-old expansion as it is for a five- or six-year-old expansion.
I am not in the business of predicting general stock market of business fluctuations. If you think I can do this, or think it is essential to an investment program, you should not be in the partnership.
