People assign much higher probability to the truth of their opinions than is warranted.
When you are different, that can lead to judges not marking you right because they think you look 'odd' - and that's in any competition.
That was excellently observed’, say I, when I read a passage in an author, where his opinion agrees with mine. When we differ, there I pronounce him to be mistaken.
The only people we can think of as normal are those we don't yet know very well.
The confidence that individuals have in their beliefs depends mostly on the quality of the story they can tell about what they see, even if they see little.
When one cannot appraise out of one's own experience, the temptation to blunder is minimized, but even when one can, appraisal seems chiefly useful as appraisal of the appraiser.
It's a big error to think that because you like somebody's work, you're going to like him.
There's no praise for scoring a fight right, just criticism for one you get wrong.
People don't have a good intuitive sense of how to weigh new information in light of what they already know. They tend to overrate it.
It is in the nature of human beings to bend information in the direction of desired conclusions.
We are all vulnerable to the tendency to overestimate the likelihood of vivid, cognitively available risks rather than statistically likelier, but less salient, risks.
