Edgar Fiedler Quotes
No one can escape the iron rule that once you make a forecast, you know you're going to be wrong; you just don't know when and in which direction!
Fiedler, Edgar R. "Economic Forecasting." The Fortune Encyclopedia of Economics, edited by David R. Henderson, Warner Books, 1993.
Despite this reality, most politicians, if they have the resources and high enough position, surround themselves with experts to advise them and then listen to them to take positions in campaigns or advise them on policy making if they are in office.
He is absolutely right, but unfortunately made this statement several years after he served as the Fed Chairman. He never made a statement like this when he and his colleagues made their policies based on their economic forecasting. Central bankers have generally felt that one of their jobs was to give the people confidence in the nation’s banking system and economy and the admission that much policy making was based on “coin toss” forecasting.
Edgar Russell Fiedler was an American economist who served as Vice President of The Conference Board and as Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for Economic Policy (1971 - 1975) during the presidencies of Richard Nixon and Gerald Ford. He authored "The Roots of Stagflation".
