Howard Raiffa Quotes
Final-offer arbitration should have great appeal for the daring (the risk seekers) who play against the timid (the risk avoiders).
Raiffa, Howard. The Art and Science of Negotiation. Belknap Press of Harvard University Press, 1982.
This was an indirect criticism of Condoleezza Rice, the National Security Advisor to George W, Bush for not taking a role that Mazarr and many others believe she should have. On the other hand, President Bush selected her precisely because she shared his values and instincts. Perhaps, Bush should have selected and advisor who held a DIFFERENT view and perspective from himself. This quotation reveals the classic dilemma of political appointments of key advisors and cabinet members. Bush and Ronald Reagan tended to select advisors who agreed with them in philosophy and politics. FDR and Obama, followed the Lincoln tradition and appointed many advisors who were not intellectual clones of their own views and values.
When whites first came to America, the Iroquois, were the most sophisticated Native Americans. They were actually a confederation of 5 different tribes each of which was composed if many clans. Although fierce warriors, they had agreed not to fight each other and to assist if any were attacked. They developed a strong agricultural base, to go with the fishing and hunting, and their confederation were very aggressive and sophisticated traders taking them far from their upstate New York “capitol.” Their governmental structure was quite sophisticated with an elaborate, formal, system of checks and balances, multi-cameral legislatures that recognized numbers of citizens, power and wealth, and even cultural traditions. They were literate, capitalistic and globalistic in that they wanted to trade with all. They had written laws, and women had a role that was unique in world history in that only women owned property in a matrilineal society. Further, it was only the Clan Mothers who voted for the 50 Sachems (~Senators)—but their selections had to be accepted by the people they represented. Ironically the descendants of the Iroquois who remained in New York became a very successful Native American group. In the 2000 census, the average Indian in New York State earned the same income as the average White with no Indian gambling money.
Treaties often end up with disputes of the parties over issues in the treaty. Good treaties have built in a method for resolving differences regarding the treaty. This clause is a good example.
Howard Raiffa was an American academic who was the Frank P. Ramsey Professor (Emeritus) of Managerial Economics, a joint chair held by the Business School and the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University. He was an influential Bayesian decision theorist and pioneer in the field of decision analysis, with works in statistical decision theory, game theory, behavioral decision theory, risk analysis, and negotiation analysis. He helped found and was the first director of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.
